Winter 2025–26 Outlook: Crude Oil and Polypropylene Price Forecast
The winter season typically brings planned maintenance shutdowns and inventory adjustments across the petrochemical sector. Industry forecasts suggest Q1 2026 may see tighter PP supply in North America, while global markets remain weighed down by overcapacity — with geopolitical risk adding uncertainty.
From Q4 through Q1 each year, petrochemical plants in the Northern Hemisphere enter a period of planned maintenance, often producing seasonal volatility in crude oil and polypropylene markets. According to Argus Media's 2026 polypropylene outlook, global PP markets are expected to remain structurally long through 2026: China's rapid capacity expansion continues to weigh on prices, downstream demand in packaging and automotive remains weak, and elevated inventories limit near-term upside.
Regional dynamics, however, diverge significantly. A February 2026 report from Plastics Technology noted that PE, PP, and PVC prices in North America were flat to up in the first two months of 2026, driven by scheduled and unscheduled plant shutdowns, supplier efforts to improve supply-demand balance, and the potential for firmer feedstock costs. North American producers anticipate propylene supply tightening during the winter maintenance season, which could support a Q1 rebound in PP prices and margins.
ChemOrbis analysis of the Indian market shows Brent crude hovering in the mid-USD 60s/bbl through late 2025, with naphtha around USD 600/ton CFR Japan, offering limited cost-push support for PP prices. New capacity additions in India and increased Chinese exports may keep Asian markets under pressure through 2026.
For stationery exporters, winter is a critical window for price negotiations and order locking. Buyers are advised to confirm H1 2026 raw-material cost assumptions with factories in Q1, and monitor geopolitical developments that could affect quotations. Procurement Resource notes that if geopolitical tensions persist and propylene and freight costs remain elevated, near-term PP prices may stay firm.
Sources: Argus Media Polypropylene Outlook (2026); Plastics Technology (Feb 2026); ChemOrbis (29 Dec 2025); Procurement Resource — Polypropylene Price Trend 2026.